关键词: 纸质图书, 变化趋势, 模型, 生命周期

Abstract:

In the period of rapid development in digital publishing， to carry out research on the life cycle of paper books and to point out the trend model of publication scientifically makes for the formulation of development strategy and planning for publishing.This paper proposes the trend model of publication，based on the number of books publication，and has a quantitative analysis of the life cycle of paper books which act as commodity. It is found that paper book is in the mature period of its life cycle.In order to extend the life cycle of paper books， some countermeasures to promote the paper book publishing are proposed.