关键词: 出版 丨书号调控政策 , 丨图书种数 , 丨图书印数

Abstract:

This paper aims at analyzing the characteristics of the Chinese publishing industry between 1981 and
2005 and calculating the future trend by applying the method of time sequence analysis. The relationship between the
current ISBN control policy and the development trend of the publishing industry has been further studied. It has been
observed through analysis of the model that the domestic publishing industry has been characterized by the annual increase in the total number of book titles and the annual decrease in the average print-run during the past two decades. It
is obvious that there exists the conflicting relationship between the demand of the industry and the ISBN control po-licy.
Reorientation of the ISBN policy by the publishing administration has been suggested at the end of this paper.